This paper examines the consequences of neglecting probability in decision making. It explores the potential pitfalls of relying solely on intuition and experience when making decisions, and the importance of incorporating probability into decision making. The paper also examines the various methods of incorporating probability into decision making, and the
The neglect of probability, a type of cognitive bias, is the tendency to disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty and is one simple way in which people regularly violate the normative rules for decision making. Small risks are typically either neglected entirely or hugely overrated. The continuum between the extremes is ignored. The term probability neglect was coined by Cass Sunstein.